Research & Publications

Pedro Portugal

Banco de Portugal
Nova School of Business and Economics

Pedro Portugal
I.

Labor Economics

Wage formation, unions, displacement, and the returns to schooling — estimated from matched employer–employee data.

2024
What Lies behind the Returns to Schooling: The Role of Labor Market Sorting and Worker Heterogeneity

with H. Reis, P. Guimarães & A. R. Cardoso — Review of Economics and Statistics

doi 10.1162/rest_a_01482
2023
Union Membership Density and Wages: The Role of Worker, Firm, and Job-Title Heterogeneity

with J. T. Addison & H. de Almeida Vilares — Journal of Econometrics, 233(2)

doi 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.002
2022
Why Do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?

with J. Varejão — Portuguese Economic Journal, 21(3)

doi 10.1007/s10258-022-00215-0
2021
The Sources of the Wage Losses of Displaced Workers: The Role of the Reallocation of Workers into Firms, Matches, and Job Titles

with P. Raposo & A. Carneiro — Journal of Human Resources, 56(3)

doi 10.3368/jhr.56.3.0317-8667R3
2016
What Drives the Gender Wage Gap? A Look at the Role of Firm and Job-Title Heterogeneity

with A. R. Cardoso & P. Guimarães — Oxford Economic Papers, 68(2)

doi 10.1093/oep/gpv069
II.

Macroeconomics

Unemployment dynamics, wage cyclicality, and the macroeconomic adjustment of the Portuguese economy in the euro.

2020
How the Ins and Outs Shape Differently the U.S. Unemployment over Time and across Frequencies

with A. Rua — European Economic Review, 121

doi 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103348
2017
Boom, Slump, Sudden Stops, Recovery, and Policy Options: Portugal and the Euro

with O. Blanchard — Portuguese Economic Journal, 16(3)

doi 10.1007/s10258-017-0139-8
2014
Catastrophic Job Destruction during the Portuguese Economic Crisis

with A. Carneiro & J. Varejão — Journal of Macroeconomics, 39(B)

doi 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.09.018
2012
Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job Title Heterogeneity

with A. Carneiro & P. Guimarães — American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(2)

doi 10.1257/mac.4.2.133
2001
What Hides behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets

with O. Blanchard — American Economic Review, 91(1)

doi 10.1257/aer.91.1.187
III.

Firm Dynamics

The entry, survival, and exit of firms — a research line at the border of industrial economics and strategy.

2015
The Termination of International Joint Ventures: Closure and Acquisition by Domestic and Foreign Partners

with J. Mata — International Business Review, 24(4)

doi 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2014.12.004
2010
Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms

with P. A. Geroski & J. Mata — Strategic Management Journal, 31(5)

doi 10.1002/smj.823
2004
Patterns of Entry, Post-Entry Growth and Survival: A Comparison between Domestic and Foreign Owned Firms

with J. Mata — Small Business Economics, 22(3–4)

doi 10.1023/B:SBEJ.0000022219.25772.ca
2002
The Survival of New Domestic and Foreign-Owned Firms

with J. Mata — Strategic Management Journal, 23(4)

doi 10.1002/smj.217
2000
Closure and Divestiture by Foreign Entrants: The Impact of Entry and Post-Entry Strategies

with J. Mata — Strategic Management Journal, 21(5)

doi 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266…
IV.

Econometric Methods

High-dimensional fixed-effects estimation and duration analysis — tools now standard in the study of matched employer–employee data.

2023
The Persistence of Wages

with A. Carneiro, P. Raposo & P. M. M. Rodrigues — Journal of Econometrics, 233(2)

doi 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.11.014
2018
The Sources of Wage Variation and the Direction of Assortative Matching: Evidence from a Three-Way High-Dimensional Fixed Effects Regression Model

with S. Torres, J. T. Addison & P. Guimarães — Labour Economics, 54

doi 10.1016/j.labeco.2018.06.004
2010
A Simple Feasible Procedure to Fit Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects

with P. Guimarães — The Stata Journal, 10(4)

doi 10.1177/1536867X1101000406
2003
Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

with J. T. Addison — Journal of Human Resources, 38(1)

doi 10.3368/jhr.XXXVIII.1.156
1998
Some Specification Issues in Unemployment Duration Analysis

with J. T. Addison — Labour Economics, 5(1)

doi 10.1016/S0927-5371(97)00026-2
V.

Working Papers

Current research in circulation.

2025
Human Capital Spillovers and the External Returns to Education

with H. Reis, P. Guimarães & A. R. Cardoso — IZA Discussion Paper 17690

2024
On the Asymmetrical Sensitivity of the Distribution of Real Wages to Business Cycle Fluctuations

with R. Barrela & E. Costa — IZA Discussion Paper 16911 · Banco de Portugal WP 2024/08

2023
Retrieving the Returns to Experience, Tenure, and Job Mobility from Work Histories

with J. T. Addison & P. Raposo — IZA Discussion Paper 15977 · CESifo WP 10304

2017
Going after the Addiction, Not the Addicted: The Impact of Drug Decriminalization in Portugal

with S. Félix & A. Tavares — IZA Discussion Paper 10895

2017
Upward Nominal Wage Rigidity

with P. Guimarães & F. Martins — IZA Discussion Paper 10510 · Banco de Portugal WP 2017/02

§

Earlier & Other Work

1987 — 2017
2017
Unions and Collective Bargaining in the Wake of the Great Recession: Evidence from Portugal

with J. T. Addison & H. Vilares — British Journal of Industrial Relations, 55(3)

doi 10.1111/bjir.12198
2014
Labor Demand Research: Toward a Better Match between Better Theory and Better Data

with J. T. Addison & J. Varejão — Labour Economics, 30

doi 10.1016/j.labeco.2014.06.002
2013
The Reservation Wage Unemployment Duration Nexus

with J. T. Addison & J. A. F. Machado — Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(6)

doi 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00717.x
2010
Unemployment Benefits and Reservation Wages: Key Elasticities from a Stripped-Down Job Search Approach

with J. T. Addison & M. Centeno — Economica, 77(305)

doi 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00725.x
2009
Do Reservation Wages Really Decline? Some International Evidence on the Determinants of Reservation Wages

with J. T. Addison & M. Centeno — Journal of Labor Research, 30(1)

doi 10.1007/s12122-008-9057-y
2008
Six Ways to Leave Unemployment

with J. T. Addison — Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 55(4)

doi 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2008.00459.x
2008
Wages and the Risk of Displacement

with A. Carneiro — Research in Labor Economics, 28

doi 10.1016/S0147-9121(08)28008-8
2008
Market Power, Dismissal Threat, and Rent Sharing

with A. Carneiro — International Journal of Manpower, 29(1)

doi 10.1108/01437720810861994
2008
How Do Different Entitlements to Unemployment Benefits Affect the Transitions from Unemployment into Employment?

with J. T. Addison — Economics Letters, 101(3)

doi 10.1016/j.econlet.2008.08.020
2007
Employment Dynamics and the Structure of Labor Adjustment Costs

with J. Varejão — Journal of Labor Economics, 25(1)

doi 10.1086/509825
2006
Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations

with A. R. Cardoso — Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(5)

doi 10.1162/JEEA.2006.4.5.988
2005
Contractual Wages and the Wage Cushion under Different Bargaining Settings

with A. R. Cardoso — Journal of Labor Economics, 23(4)

doi 10.1086/491608
2004
How Does the Unemployment Insurance System Shape the Time Profile of Jobless Duration?

with J. T. Addison — Economics Letters, 85(2)

2002
Job Search Methods and Outcomes

with J. T. Addison — Oxford Economic Papers, 54(3)

doi 10.1093/oep/54.3.505
2000
Labour Market Outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain

with O. Bover & P. García-Perea — Economic Policy, 15(31)

doi 10.1111/1468-0327.00065
2000
Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

with J. T. Addison — Economics Letters, 66(1)

1995
The Survival of New Plants: Start-up Conditions and Post-Entry Evolution

with J. Mata & P. Guimarães — International Journal of Industrial Organization, 13(4)

doi 10.1016/0167-7187(95)00500-5
1995
Short- and Long-Term Unemployment: A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects

with J. T. Addison — Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57(2)

1994
Life Duration of New Firms

with J. Mata — Journal of Industrial Economics, 42(3)

doi 10.2307/2950567
1992
Advance Notice and Unemployment: New Evidence from the 1988 Displaced Worker Survey

with J. T. Addison — ILR Review, 45(4)

doi 10.1177/001979399204500402
1992
The Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration: A Reply

with J. T. Addison — Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4)

1990
Problems of Sample Construction in Studies of the Effects of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment Duration

with J. T. Addison — ILR Review, 43(4)

1989
Job Displacement, Relative Wage Changes, and Duration of Unemployment

with J. T. Addison — Journal of Labor Economics, 7(3)

doi 10.1086/298209
1987
On the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration

with J. T. Addison — Review of Economics and Statistics, 69(3)

1987
The Effect of Advance Notification of Plant Closings on Unemployment

with J. T. Addison — ILR Review, 41(1)

doi 10.1177/001979398704100101